Asia Pacific Tourism Projected to Surpass Pre-Pandemic Levels by 2028, PATA Forecasts

Asia Pacific tourism is expected to surpass pre-pandemic visitor numbers by 2028, according to the Pacific Asia Travel Association, but the industry faces significant risks from geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, and climate-related disruptions, requiring destinations to remain adaptable and resilient.

Tourism Recovery Projections

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has released its Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts for 2026-2028, providing an outlook on the region’s inbound tourism recovery. According to PATA, international arrivals to the Asia Pacific region are projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels from 2026 onward. The baseline scenario anticipates that the region will welcome approximately 761.2 million visitors by 2028. This projection suggests a robust recovery for the tourism sector, which was significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent travel restrictions.

However, PATA’s forecast also includes a lower-bound scenario that accounts for ongoing uncertainties. In this scenario, international visitor arrivals could reach 599.7 million by 2028, representing an 88% recovery from 2019 levels. The gap between these two scenarios highlights the uncertainty facing the industry as it enters the next phase of recovery.

Risks and Uncertainties

PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid emphasized that the tourism sector is entering a more complex phase. While there is positive momentum driven by strong regional demand, the industry is also under pressure from several factors. These include geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic volatility, and climate-related disruptions. Hamid noted that growth in international tourism is no longer linear or guaranteed, and that destinations and organizations must be prepared for multiple scenarios.

The CEO stressed the importance of adaptability, calling for the ability to recalibrate strategies and respond with agility to changing circumstances. He also highlighted the need for decision-making to be based on real-time data and a clear understanding of risk. According to Hamid, resilience and preparedness will be key to navigating the uncertainties that lie ahead for the tourism industry.

Structural Changes and the Need for Adaptation

Professor Haiyan Song of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University’s School of Hotel and Tourism Management commented on the deeper shifts occurring within the tourism economy. Song pointed out that the forecast results reflect not only the pace of recovery across destinations but also structural changes that are transforming the sector. He suggested that understanding these dynamics is critical for destinations seeking to navigate uncertainty while pursuing sustainable and competitive growth.

The industry’s recovery is being influenced by changing travel patterns, evolving consumer preferences, and the need for more sustainable tourism practices. These factors, combined with external risks, mean that destinations must remain flexible and responsive to both opportunities and challenges.

Implications for the Asia Pacific Tourism Sector

The PATA forecasts indicate that while the Asia Pacific region is on track to recover and potentially surpass pre-pandemic visitor numbers by 2028, the path forward is not without obstacles. Geopolitical developments, economic instability, and climate-related threats continue to pose risks to the sector’s growth. As a result, tourism stakeholders are being urged to prioritize resilience, adaptability, and data-driven decision-making.

The report underscores the importance of preparing for a range of possible scenarios and highlights the need for ongoing vigilance as the industry navigates a period of significant change.