Grocery prices in Canada could rise as the Middle East conflict disrupts supply chains

Analysts are warning the conflict in the Middle East could drive up costs across Canada’s supply chains and compound price pressures at the grocery store in the weeks to come.

Global oil prices have risen sharply in recent days as Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran threaten to escalate into a wider conflict and turn the Strait of Hormuz — a critical channel for global energy shipments — into a choke point.

Fraser Johnson of the Ivey Business School at Western University says that while Canada doesn’t get oil or natural gas from the Gulf region, consumers could feel the jump in global energy prices beyond the gas pumps.

Johnson, a professor of operations management, says rising oil prices eventually lead to higher freight rates, and those costs ultimately are passed on to consumers.

He warns that if energy costs remain high over the coming weeks, Canadians will feel the pinch first at the grocery store — where the shorter shelf life for fresh food means a greater vulnerability to global shipping disruptions.

Economists at Desjardins said in a report earlier this week that energy market volatility could pull annual inflation up by one or two ticks this year, though a lift in the loonie tied to stronger oil revenues could help offset some price hikes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 6, 2026.