In Brief: Profitroom data from seven markets indicates that hotel reservations made through online travel agencies more than six months before arrival are substantially more likely to be canceled than direct bookings, requiring hotels to assess early 2027 booking demand by sales channel, lead time and past cancellation patterns.
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OTA Cancellations Cloud Hotels’ Forecasts for 2027 European Season – Image Credit Unsplash
Early 2027 Travel Sales Begin
European travel providers have begun selling trips for 2027, creating an early booking cycle for hotels, airlines and tour operators. On July 28, easyJet released nearly 14 million seats across 78,000 flights for travel between June and September 2027. CIE Tours is also offering early-booking deals for selected European tours aimed at U.S. travelers.
For hotels, these sales can produce reservations many months before guests are expected to arrive. Profitroom’s analysis suggests early reservations may not provide a reliable measure of final occupancy, particularly when made through online travel agencies, or OTAs.
The company examined historical hotel reservation data and found that a significant share of OTA bookings made 180 days or more before arrival were later cancelled. Across the European markets cited in the analysis, long-lead OTA cancellation rates ranged from 28% to 47.6%. Direct reservations had lower cancellation rates in each market.
OTA Cancellation Rates Increase With Longer Lead Times
Profitroom’s study used data from hotels employing both its Booking Engine for direct reservations and its Channel Manager for OTA reservations. The 2025 sample included more than 4 million confirmed bookings and cancelled bookings from the same hotel group.
Across seven markets and all booking windows, OTA bookings had a cancellation rate of 19.3%, compared with 12% for direct bookings. The OTA rate was 61% higher than the direct booking rate.
The difference was more pronounced among bookings made at least 180 days before arrival. In Poland, 47.6% of long-lead OTA bookings were cancelled, compared with 25.7% of direct bookings. In Czechia and Slovakia, the rates were 43.4% for OTA reservations and 22% for direct reservations.
The Nordics recorded a 39.4% cancellation rate for OTA bookings made at least six months in advance, while direct bookings in the region had an 11.7% rate. In the United Kingdom, the equivalent figures were 28% for OTA bookings and 14.6% for direct bookings.
In Poland, OTA cancellations increased from 33.3% for stays booked 31 to 90 days ahead to 43.6% for bookings made 91 to 180 days ahead. The rate reached 47.6% for reservations made more than 180 days before arrival.
Direct bookings in Poland also showed higher cancellation rates for longer booking windows, though at lower levels. Their rates were 17.5%, 21.7% and 25.7%, respectively, across the same periods.
Cancelled OTA Reservations Remain Active Longer
Profitroom also found differences in the timing of cancellations. In Poland, the median direct reservation that was ultimately cancelled remained active for one day after booking. For OTA reservations, the median was eight days.
On average, cancelled direct bookings remained active for 15 days, compared with 27 days for cancelled OTA bookings. This can affect a hotel’s assessment of future occupancy because reservations remain part of forward-looking booking totals until they are cancelled.
A high volume of early bookings could lead a hotel to assume demand is stronger than it ultimately will be. Such assumptions can influence room pricing, inventory availability and decisions about whether to accept additional reservations.
Hotels Urged To Use Booking Data in Forecasts
Profitroom recommends that hotels separate direct and OTA booking pace when reviewing demand for 2027. It also advises comparing cancellation rates by lead time and tracking how long cancelled reservations normally remain active in booking systems.
Flexible booking terms should not necessarily be removed in response to cancellation risk. Travelers making plans many months in advance may need options that allow changes or cancellations. Hotels can instead use past booking and cancellation patterns to improve forecasting.
The study covers Poland, the United Kingdom, Africa, Czechia and Slovakia, the Nordics, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Profitroom’s market-level data covers reservations made between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025. Cancellation figures were calculated separately for direct and OTA channels using confirmed and cancelled reservations. The aggregated results were weighted by bookings rather than by hotel.
