Redesigning Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption

Report examines 85 tourism crises

TOURISE and Oxford Economics have released a report examining tourism resilience during periods of repeated disruption. The report, titled “Resilience in a World that Doesn’t Reset: Redesigning Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption,” reviewed 85 major crises over the past two decades.

Its central finding is that destinations that take preventive action and prepare for possible disruptions tend to recover more quickly than destinations that wait until a crisis is underway. According to the analysis, proactive destinations may recover up to 1.5 times faster.

The report describes a tourism environment in which destinations may face economic shocks, conflict, natural disasters, transport interruptions and misinformation in close succession. It argues that recovery planning can no longer assume that one crisis will end before another begins.

Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Saudi Arabia’s minister of tourism and chairman of TOURISE, said destinations are increasingly being assessed on their ability to prepare for volatility, sustain traveler confidence and maintain services during disruptions.

Middle East scenarios show effects on global travel

The report uses the current Middle East crisis to model possible effects on international tourism. Gulf transport hubs account for roughly 14 percent of global transit traffic, making disruptions in the region relevant to travel flows beyond the Middle East, the analysis said.

Under a scenario in which a ceasefire remains in place, the report projects global travel growth of about 6 percent in 2026. If hostilities resume, it estimates global travel could decline by about 1 percent. In a scenario involving sustained disruption, global travel could fall by around 3 percent and remain weak into 2027.

Across the three scenarios, the report identifies confidence, connectivity and affordability as the main factors determining the pace of recovery. It says destinations can shorten downturns by restoring flight networks, providing clear information to travelers, and managing costs that may otherwise discourage bookings.

Misinformation can affect demand before physical disruption

The report also highlights the role of unverified online information in influencing travel decisions. It cited events in 2025 in which viral rumors about a possible major earthquake led to booking declines of as much as 50 percent in some East Asian markets, despite the report stating that the rumors had no scientific basis.

The analysis says the case demonstrates that tourism demand can be affected before an actual physical disruption occurs. It recommends that destinations and travel businesses prepare communication strategies to address inaccurate information quickly and provide travelers with verified updates.

Such communication is presented as part of broader crisis preparation, rather than as a response limited to individual events. The report says public authorities, airports, airlines, hotels and tourism agencies need coordinated information systems when uncertainty affects traveler behavior.

Recovery periods have shortened, but risks are becoming more complex

According to the report, average tourism recovery periods have fallen over the past two decades. It estimates that destinations commonly required about 24 months to recover from major disruptions in the early 2000s, compared with roughly 10 to 12 months today.

The report attributes the shorter recovery periods in part to improved crisis management, faster communications and greater flexibility in travel operations. However, it cautions that multi-country and interconnected crises could reverse or slow that improvement.

Disruptions that affect air routes, regional security, energy costs, supply chains and consumer confidence at the same time can have wider consequences than localized events, the analysis said. This may require tourism policymakers to plan not only for direct damage to destinations but also for disruptions elsewhere in the travel system.

Saudi tourism figures cited as an example of diversification

The report cites Saudi Arabia’s tourism performance during regional volatility as an example of how diversification can support resilience. It states that the country welcomed 37.2 million tourists during the first quarter of 2026, an 8 percent increase from the same period a year earlier.

It also says Saudi Arabia reached its target of 100 million annual visitors seven years ahead of schedule. The report links this performance to tourism diversification efforts under Saudi Vision 2030, while presenting it as an example of a destination seeking to expand its capacity to withstand external shocks.

Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, said international tourism reached a record 1.52 billion arrivals in 2025 despite natural disasters and human-caused crises over the previous decade. He said resilience can be developed before disruption through planning and investment.

The report concludes that preparedness is becoming a central factor in tourism competitiveness. It calls for destinations to treat risk planning, communications, transportation continuity and visitor affordability as ongoing parts of tourism policy rather than measures used only after a crisis begins.