Smith, swing voters to play a key role in referendum, says political analyst

With just one month to go before Albertans cast 10 votes on the province’s future, a Calgary-based political communications leader is stressing the importance of staying united.

Alberta is set to vote on 10 questions on Oct. 19, the most prominent of which is whether the province should launch a binding referendum on separation or remain in Canada.

Both federalists and separatists have been engaged in varying ways to win public support, with signs being hammered into lawns and rallies being held in community halls across the province.

“There seems to be a very clear 20 to 25 per cent of Albertans who are in favour of separating and then upwards of 75 per cent who are opposed,” said Colin Aitchison, Western Canada president of Enterprise Canada, a national strategic and public affairs firm. “Now, I think those numbers might sound kind of, ‘OK, it’s a very small group,’ but I don’t think 20 to 25 per cent of Albertans is insignificant.”

One poll indicating this spread is from Vancouver-based Research Co., with 72 per cent indicating they will vote in favour of keeping Alberta in Canada.

The survey had 750 participants and was conducted online from Aug. 24-26.

Other polling has also consistently indicated a wide margin of victory for those in favour of federalism, with even the lowest show of support from the federalist side being at 61 per cent in a poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute.

However, Aitchison notes there’s still a soft middle, a group of people who still can be swayed before they enter the voting booth.

“How many of them might be influenced based on the wording of the question to kind of use that as an opportunity to send a message to Ottawa?” Aitchison said.

Voices leading the charge

One of the more prominent voices in the remain campaign has been Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who has called for a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada since taking over from Jason Kenney.

Aitchison says her consistent messaging and tone have been clear.

“That’s a very clear pro-Canada message,” he said. “I think one of the reasons why people might view her as one of the strongest, if not the strongest, is that she’s not being dismissive of people with concerns.”

Aitchison says the referendum questions being posed to Albertans, in addition to the question regarding the province’s future in Canada, are a way for the Alberta government and Smith to appear as strong advocates for the province and the country.

Albertans will be voting on 10 questions in this upcoming referendum, nine of which concern constitutional and immigration-related matters.

The vote is slated to take place Oct. 19.

Copyright 2026, St. Albert Gazette. All rights reserved.

David Boles, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, St. Albert Gazette.