(Al Jazeera Media Network) The shipping industry, already heavily constrained by restrictions on transit through key waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz, faces another challenge stemming from the US-Israel war on Iran and Russia’s war on Ukraine: a shortage of fuel oil used by ships and power plants.
The fuel used by ships powers the transport of large cargoes around the world. Any shortage of this fuel could drive up global freight costs, which could in turn affect consumers and manufacturers of goods and commodities.
Most ships and oil tankers mainly use heavy fuel oil (HFO), commonly known as bunker fuel, to power their engines. This fuel is produced when crude oil is refined.
Other commonly used marine fuels include marine gas oil (used by smaller vessels), marine diesel oil (used in marine engines) and less polluting fuels like very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO).
Why is ship fuel running low?
According to analysts, the wars in West Asia and Europe, along with refiners opting to produce more profitable fuels, have contributed to the shortage.
Middle East fuel oil exports were down by 45 percent year on year to an average of 447,000 barrels per day (bpd) from March to August, data from energy trade analytics firm Kpler shows.
Energy consultancy Energy Aspects told Reuters news agency that it expects the fuel oil market to face a deficit of 218,000 bpd in the third quarter. This is the first shortfall it has estimated since the third quarter of 2025, when it was a marginal 6,000 bpd.
How have wars in West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war affected fuel oil?
The US-Israel war on Iran has paralysed key maritime trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas passed before the start of the war.
Iran has struck multiple oil facilities in the Gulf in retaliation against the United States.
Attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea and around the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important shipping routes, have also disrupted shipping and constrained supply routes.
Royston Huan, a senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects, told Al Jazeera that since April, the company has noticed a 400,000 bpd reduction in ship fuel sales compared to levels a year ago, which were 6.9 million bpd. Over a year, that would translate to an average of two million tonnes of fuel oil less every month
“For perspective, this supply loss is about the same magnitude as all of China’s bunker sales volume,” Huan explained. China is a major oil refiner.
Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine has also had an impact on oil supplies. Ukraine has in recent weeks bombed multiple Russian refineries.
Russia is the world’s second-largest exporter of crude oil. Ukrainian drone attacks have affected Russia’s refinery output, with its fuel oil exports in August hitting a record low 591,000 bpd, down from an average of over 860,000 bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data going back to 2017.
The net result: less crude is being shipped out from key oil-producing regions, especially the Gulf and Russia.
That has meant an overall shortage in supplies of crude. And oil companies aren’t prioritising fuel oil as their product of choice.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/7/iran-and-ukraine-wars-why-ship-fuel-is-running-short-and-why-it-matters
