Quebec could get extra long, extra warm fall weather this year

If autumn’s your favourite season, you may be in for a treat.

Fall weather in Quebec is shaping up to run a little warmer and stick around longer than usual this year, and it’s all thanks to what’s happening in the Pacific Ocean.

According to a new report from MétéoMédia, El Niño has been building there since June, with surface temperatures running more than 2°C above normal, making it strong enough to qualify as a “super El Niño.” Forecasters say it could end up being the most powerful episode ever recorded.

Locally, though, the effects won’t be extreme. “Even though El Niño is the dominant weather player, its direct impact on fall in Quebec won’t be all that exceptional,” said André Monette, chief of meteorology at MétéoMédia.

A fairly normal pattern is expected through mid-October, with mild stretches broken up by short bursts of cooler air. Then comes a real cold snap between mid-October and early November, which Monette warns folks not to read too much into. “We could see a colder stretch for a week or two, which might feel like an abrupt end to fall,” he said. “That would be a false impression.”

After that, temperatures are expected to swing back near or above normal right through late November. “El Niño’s real fingerprint will show up mainly in November, with an extended stretch of mild weather,” Monette said. It’s a sharp contrast to last year, when snow on November 11 effectively ended fall early and dragged us into a winter that felt endless.

The same setup is expected to push major fall storms away from Quebec, since the mild air lingering at this latitude removes the temperature clash storms need to form. That doesn’t mean nothing will happen, though. Doug Gillham, chief forecaster at The Weather Network, told the Canadian Press in an interview not to get too comfortable with that idea. “Don’t be lulled into a sense of, ‘oh we’re just going to have a dry fall and we don’t have to worry about any storms,'” he said. “Fewer storms doesn’t mean that the storms that occur won’t pack a punch.”

Most of Canada is also expected to see warmer-than-normal conditions, with the exception of near-normal temperatures in western parts of Yukon and parts of Baffin Island.

Gillham summed up, saying “winter is probably going to wait on the sidelines for a while.” As for how long that lasts, MétéoMédia’s full winter outlook isn’t expected until late November.